Rocket Men Face Off

Escalating insults on Korea could lead to mushroom clouds over the Pacific

President Donald Trump heightened fears of a nuclear confrontation on the Korean Peninsula, which had been building for weeks, up a few notches with his blunt threat to “totally destroy” North Korea. Ironically, his concurrent threat to abandon the Iranian nuclear deal helped to remove any incentive for Kim Jong-un to come to the negotiating table. Defence secretary Jim Mattis hinted that Trump’s threat may not be mere bluster when he refused to deny reports that the Pentagon was considering using tactical nuclear weapons against Pyongyang. Other sources have hinted about an unspecified “sharp, short warning shot” at North Korea – a limited application of military force that would ideally not trigger a devastating response.

Trump may be trying to scare the North Korean leader, whom he mocks as a “Rocket Man” on a suicide mission, into joining talks aimed at compelling him to abandon his nuclear weapons. But the salutary example of Muammar Gaddafi – who had voluntarily surrendered his nuclear weapons programme – is a chilling reminder to Kim that denuclearisation is the surest path to an ignominious demise. And, as Trump’s current hostility to the Iran nuclear deal vividly illustrates, there are no guarantees that disarmament would preclude further demands from the US and its perfidious allies.

Having defied countless unanimous UN Security Council resolutions, Kim is unlikely to give up the only weapon that ensures his survival. He also knows that his closest neighbours China and South Korea oppose a US-led military solution that would engulf the entire region. As such, the net result of Trump’s threat might well be to encourage Kim to speed up building his nuclear-tipped ICBM and force Washington to accept the reality of a nuclear-capable North Korea. It was acceptance of the unpalatable reality of Iran’s nuclear capability that led the Obama administration, UK, France, China and Russia plus Germany to enter into negotiations with Tehran. The 2015 agreement essentially stopped development of Tehran’s bomb and sharply constrained its nuclear programme for 15 years in exchange for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions. The agreement was premised in part on the hope that, by the time the agreement terminates, Iran would have discovered that the benefits of global engagement were more attractive than being a nuclear-armed international pariah.

Many Western and South Korean analysts believe that North Korea is so far ahead of Iran in its nuclear and missile development that it is well past time for an Iran-like deal. At this stage, Kim would not likely be satisfied with anything short of a grand bargain in which Washington and the international community recognise North Korea and offer economic aid in exchange for a freeze on its weapons and missile programmes.

Trump has at times hinted that he is impressed by the young dictator, stating that “If it would be appropriate for me to meet with him, i would absolutely, i would be honoured to do it.” This was a course suggested to him by Chinese President Xi Jinping during their first meeting. To assure Kim, Washington has stated that it does not seek regime change – only abandonment of the nuclear programme. But North Korea’s series of missile tests and apparent testing of a hydrogen bomb provoked Trump to increase his own insults and threats. With Kim returning the favour it is increasingly difficult for either side to de-escalate without losing face.

With a majority of Americans favouring military action against Pyongyang, a diplomatic grand bargain could come as a major disappointment to Trump’s fired-up base. China and Russia, conversely, would support negotiations, which would inevitably weaken US-South Korea military ties and reduce American influence in the region. South Korea’s left-of-centre new administration too would warmly welcome a move towards peace and stability.

But with relations between two nuclear powers descending into a schoolyard brawl between bullies, the time for grand bargains is fast disappearing against the gathering threat of mushroom clouds over the Pacific.